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Overall, it’s been a busy stretch for the board since the start of 2025. In that time the regulator has issued five multimillion-dollar anti-money laundering fines to entities on the Las Vegas Strip, an unprecedented run of sanctions for America’s gambling capital.

Four of the investigations – those involving Resorts World Las Vegas, MGM Resorts, Caesars Entertainment and the Venetian – centred around AML violations related to illegal bookmaker Mathew Bowyer, who was placed on the state’s exclusion list in April. The other case involving Wynn Las Vegas did not pertain to play from Bowyer.

Wynn forfeited $130 million to the federal government for a slew of proxy betting violations, which was “believed to be the largest forfeiture by a casino based on admissions of criminal wrongdoing”, per federal prosecutors.

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Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.

His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.

The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

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Initial reaction from investors was largely unfavourable. Genius shares plunged 13% on 18 Sept., falling 17% for the week. The data provider closed the session at $5.64 per share, well below the $6.19 price when it announced the Legend acquisition in February.

The launch of Prediction.com comes amid a strategic integration phase following Genius Sports’ acquisition of Legend. 

It coincided with the beginning of the NFL season in the US, viewed as a peak commercial period for sports data monetisation. Genius also maintains partnerships with DraftKings and FanDuel, both of which signed extensions to remain as NFL partners ahead of this season.