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Closing of the transaction is targeted for the first quarter of 2027.

Following closing, Merkur intends to file the mandatory tender offer with the AMF in the first half of 2027, with the offer launch contingent on the regulator’s clearance.

The transaction remains subject to customary closing conditions, including receipt of all necessary regulatory approvals.

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Genius founder and CEO Mark Locke this week touted Genius’ position as a provider of official data, settlement and integrity services to both traditional betting and predictions platforms.

“Through Legend and our wider media platform we help operators acquire the customers all of them are competing for,” he added in a personal LinkedIn post.

“That is why I see prediction markets as a net benefit for Genius. I believe they create more businesses to supply, more ways to monetise the same sports activity and more competition for the customers we help operators win,” Locke said.

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Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.