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For all the hoopla surrounding prediction markets and expectations that the industry will eat away at sportsbooks’ NFL handle this season, the old guard industry is expected to control nearly 80% of pro football wagers this year.

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) estimates that bettors will plunk down $40.5 billion on the NFL this season through regulated channels. Traditional sportsbooks are projected to capture $31.7 billion of that total, compared to a handle analog of $8.4 billion for prediction markets—a 79% to 21% split in favor of legacy operators.

Handle analog is a metric used as a cleaner comparison between sportsbooks and prediction markets because the latter’s volume doesn’t compare evenly with sportsbook handle.

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At Caesars Sportsbook, seven of eight early afternoon favorites won outright, and six games went Over the total—many hitting the mark by halftime.

Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, told Casino.org that favorites, Overs, and anytime touchdown scorers combined to create a bettor-friendly trifecta. Bettors only faced major resistance when the Los Angeles Chargers were upset by the Arizona Cardinals.

However, LSR noted that traditional game outcomes are no longer reliable indicators of bookmaker profitability, largely due to the rapid growth of same-game parlays and player props.

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A recent study revealed that VIP account managers in the online gambling industry predominantly depend on spreadsheets and manual decision-making tools rather than specialised automation or AI systems. 

This reliance places many high-value players at risk of “silent churn”, where VIP players become inactive without warning, posing a significant challenge for operators.

The report, titled The State of VIP Operations, was compiled by The Playa in collaboration with Gaming Operations Academy and WarriorLab.