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In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.
Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.
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The initial batch of FSPIs launched with NHL performance gauges, triggering a wave of filings from exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers seeking to launch futures-based funds for each professional hockey team. One issuer even filed plans for leveraged ETFs tied to the NHL indexes.
A similar scenario is playing out on the back of the MLB index introduction. Both LeagueShares and RexShares filed plans for ETFs tied to the FutureSports MLB indexes.
If approved, the funds would hold baskets of the CME-traded derivatives. LeagueShares went a step further by adding a filing for 2x leveraged MLB futures funds.
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State Senator Bob Hall represents Senate District 2 in Texas, a district that contains parts of Dallas. Hall, 84, did not see a distinction between event contracts and sports wagers, noting that the former is just dressed up in a different manner.
“They’re different costumes on gambling,” he said. “Some have high heels and a tiara and others have on miniskirts or a bikini.”
Asked by Hall on how Texas should proceed moving forward, York advised that the state should seek an order that would require prediction markets to geofence their platforms from operating statewide. York also prefers the pursuit of litigation against prediction markets in state court, rather than the federal circuit, where state attorney generals have been less successful.